The Economic Drain of Mass Deportation

A Dallas Fed study shows how much it could sap economic growth.

Excerpt: "The question now, though, is how high Mr. Trump wants to crank the economic losses by mass deporting migrant farm laborers, roofers and meatpackers.

The study finds that “high interior deportation,” with removals gradually rising to 437,500 a year, would cut economic growth by 0.83 percentage point this year and 0.84 in 2027.

If there’s a “self-deportation wave,” meaning half of the people with TPS leave the U.S. before mid-2026, that would shave GDP growth by 1.01 point this year and 0.45 in 2027.

Under “mass interior deportation,” with removals rising over the next two years to a million annually, growth would be 0.89 point lower this year and 1.49 in 2027.

Economic models aren’t perfect crystal balls, as the authors warn. “However, this does not mean the results are not informative,” they say. “There is good reason to be concerned that immigration policies that lead to a reduction in net unauthorized immigration relative to historical trends, all else equal, are likely to significantly lower real GDP growth.”

This fits what businesses have been trying to tell the Trump Administration. The Agriculture Department says 42% of farmworkers in 2020-22 didn’t have legal work authorization and could be deported."